Posts Tagged ‘politics campaign 2012 issues predictions’

Campaign Predictions, 2012

June 26, 2012

I wrote the following analysis in an email to a friend. It was written in response to a letter that he copied to me from a fellow who claimed to be a successful oddsmaker in Las Vegas and small businessman.

He’s a successful oddsmaker; he says so. You can believe him, right?
Feel free to bet a large amount on the outcome.

Not me. I looked at the entries and spotted the weakness right away. “Obama has nowhere to go but down…” means that Obama is UP in those demographics.

Gas prices are down, and dropping. Remember when Gingrich blamed high gas prices on Obama? Low gas prices = voter satisfaction.

Under Bush, the guy whose policies Romney wants to continue, the economy tanked. Under Obama, the economy has been recovering. Republicans favor ‘trickle down’; after ten years, only piss has been trickling down. No jobs. Corporations are sitting on billions that they’re afraid to invest. No jobs. Adelson, big Romney supporter, is hiding his billions offshore to avoid taxes. Taking his money means you adopt his philosophy; a war weary nation isn’t interested in saber rattling in support of Israeli Zionism. That too is a possible issue.

If you want to see my take on economics, why the economy has tanked, read my blog. Be warned, I’m an Independent, but I don’t favor much of anything dealing with Romney and the current Republican and Tea Parties. If reading anything else bothers you, stick to the economics parts.

Romney’s economic policies amount to austerity; cutting the safety net, the one that he mentioned when he said he wasn’t concerned with the poor because they had that safety net. That’s being played out in Europe, and it’s not working. Meantime, Romney wrote an article in which he favored allowing GM to go bankrupt. GM just put on another shift of 800 workers. Jobs. One auto is virtually made in Ohio, all the parts at different plants. That’s going to count.

Expect the Obama campaign to begin pointing out the things Romney said. Expect them to remember all the things Gingrich and Cain and Bachmann said about Romney back during the campaign. With all the current hype, remember that only about 40% of Republican voters wanted Romney during the primary, and if they seem to be supporting him now, that support is likely to be ‘soft’. All that stuff was recorded; expect to see people like Gingrich and Cain and Santorum slamming Romney in ads, saying what they said during the primary.

Romney stuck his foot in his mouth numerous times on the campaign trail. He’s gotten better…but we’ll see how he does against Obama, who’s only had one bad miscue that I noticed. Romney’s going to have to defend things like “I like firing people” and “Corporations are people, my friends” when the campaign really heats up. I suspect people are going to resent the constant barrage of mud over the TV channels, and they’ll know who gave them this: the Conservative 5 on the Supreme Court. That Supreme Court just gave a green light to bunches of Sheriff Arpaio wannabe’s, and they’re going to be arresting Latinos. The relatives of those Latinos are able to vote…and they won’t be voting Republican.

One recent comment said that asking a woman to vote Republican is akin to asking a chicken to vote for Colonel Sanders.

After the conventions, expect these to become the real issues on the campaign. Expect them to come up in debate. When Romney has to reply off the cuff, he doesn’t do nearly as well as when he’s delivering a polished, vetted, rehearsed speech.

He does have support among the people whose issue is to get the nigger out of the White House. That group’s firm. Are there enough of them?

Maybe, if I were you, I’d hold off on that bet.